By Don G. Briggs, President – LOGA (Louisiana Oil & Gas Association)

Make no mistake. If we are going to ease the pressure on our country’s oil dependence, it is time for America to explore and tap the natural resources in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

On Jan. 15, President George W. Bush traveled to the Middle East, into the heart of radical Islamic countries, to meet with OPEC leaders and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. His mission was to humbly request the OPEC countries to increase crude oil production.

President Bush made it clear to a group of Saudi leaders and to King Abdullah that rising oil and gasoline prices are causing undue hardships on Americans. When interviewed by reporters President Bush was careful not to use the word “recession,” however Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said President Bush raised the prospect of “recession.”

Naimi said Saudi Arabia would raise production only “when the market justifies it.” Naimi went on to say, “Presidents and kings have every right, every privilege, and to comment or ask or say whatever they want. The concern for the U.S. economy is valid, but what affects the U.S. economy is more than the price of oil.”

OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem al-Badri said in an interview following the meetings, “If there is a recession the oil price is not to blame.”

Setting aside the feelings one has when reading the snippet comments of the Saudi leaders and moving forward, the real question is, can OPEC actually increase crude oil output? In a recent ABC interview, President Bush said of Saudi Arabia, “If they don’t have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do.” In 2002 OPEC countries had better than 6 million barrels per day spare capacity, this past November OPEC’s spare capacity was 1.6 million barrels per day.

The Energy Information Administration, and other groups that forecast crude oil supply and demand vary in their opinions on OPEC’s ability to put new crude into the market. The forecasters also have varying opinions on the ability of OPEC to meet future demand and demand growth.

In the EIA 2007 Outlook report there is a section called EIA OPEC Assumptions. It reads, “OPEC is assumed to be the source of additional production because its member nations hold a major portion of the world’s reserves.”

With oil at a $100 per barrel, “assumptions” make you a bit nervous, especially if they are dependent on countries that do not like you. World oil supply and demand is complicated, however some bare facts are obvious; OPEC crude oil production spare capacity is barely existent, oil prices are hovering around $100 per barrel, the value of the dollar is falling, our country is on the edge of a recession, our President recently traveled to the Middle East with hat in hand asking for help and is now proposing a $150 billion tax break to avert a recession. Not good.

We cannot drill our way into energy security, but we can delay shortages for several years while new sources of energy technologies are developed. It is time to lift the moratorium in the Eastern Planning Area of the Gulf of Mexico for exploration and development.